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Analysts Keeping To A Wide Range Of BoC Views Post CPI

CANADA
  • Desjardins: Prices are still running way too hot, with 45% of the basket rising faster than 7% Y/Y. The only question left to answer is whether the BoC hikes 50bps or 75bps in Sep and the odds look roughly even. With limited data releases between now and then, a lot will hinge on July employment.
  • GS: CPI less strong than expected but on the back of several large beats and inflation is still sequentially elevated. We keep our 75bp forecast for Sep and hawkish 4¼% terminal rate as we expect inflation to moderate but remain sequentially above target.
  • JPM: We maintain the BoC will hike by 50bp in Sep to 3.0%, the top of the Bank’s neutral range, reaching the 3.25% terminal rate by year-end 2022.
  • TD: We continue to hold the terminal policy rate view of 3.25%, and market pricing (holding in around 3.5%) could reflect that as the pricing in of even higher rates gets dialled back as we settle in.
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