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Analysts On Chances Of 50bp Hike Post CPI

CANADA
  • BMO: Inflation is getting entrenched. As a standalone report, Feb CPI argues for an even tighter stance by the Bank in the months ahead.
  • Desjardins: Inflation can no longer be viewed as simply driven by supply chain disruptions and domestically-driven price growth will see the BoC need to forge ahead with further rate hikes even as headline inflation appears to be cooling in Q2.
  • GS: The CPI beat was notable and increases the probability of a 50bp hike in coming meetings. That said, our baseline remains for 25bp hikes in every meeting this year as the ex food and energy measure is softer than headline. We think there is a bigger risk of a 50bp hike in June than April, because we expect the BoC to announce QT in April and because the BoC would have seen two more inflation prints by June.
  • Scotia: Inflation continues to surpass the BoC’s expectations and that likely amplifies the risk of a 50bps or larger hike at the April meeting. Momentum and breadth are both very high with further pressure ahead as Canadian monetary policy is far behind the curve.
  • TD: While the BoC's decision to forgo a January rate hike continues to look more questionable with hindsight, we don't think the Feb CPI report is enough to tip the scales towards a 50bp move at the April policy decision.
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