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Annual Inflation Expected in Low 4s, High Comparative Base for Energy Key

POLAND

Statistics Poland will release flash CPI readings for January tomorrow at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. According to a Bloomberg poll of analysts, consensus looks for a slowdown in annual inflation to +4.1% Y/Y, with the sequential print expected at +0.5% M/M.

  • This would be roughly in line with NBP Governor Adam Glapinski's comments from last week, when he noted that inflation is "around +4.0% Y/Y at the moment, maybe slightly more." The central bank expects inflation to approach (perhaps hit) the +2.5% target before rebounding later in the year.
  • Note that the January and February CPI data are unusual in that flash readings are not released at the end of each respective month. The outturn for January will be revised alongside the release of February figures on March 15, when Statistics Poland will also unveil the details of the annual revision to its CPI basket. This may (but does not have to) result in a larger-than-usual correction of the preliminary estimate for January due this week.
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