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Another Solid Quarter Of Growth Expected

NEW ZEALAND

NZ GDP for Q3 is released today and the production measure is expected to rise 0.9% q/q and 5.5% y/y. There is quite a positive base effect for the annual rate this quarter as Covid-impacted Q3 2021 declined 3.9% q/q. Q2 rose 1.7% q/q and 0.4% y/y. RBNZ Governor Orr mentioned after the last meeting that he would like to see a slower economy but Q3 may be too early to give him this. A shallow recession is expected to begin in Q2 2023.

  • There is a wide range of expectations for GDP starting with 0.3% q/q at the low end up to 1.3% q/q. The vast majority of forecasters expect between 0.7% and 1%.
  • Expenditure based GDP rose 2.1% q/q in Q2 to be flat on the year. It was predominantly driven by net exports which contributed 4.5pp q/q. Consumption and investment made negative contributions.
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