Axios-Sec Cab Approves Expansion Of Rafah Op, Could Cross US Red Line

Barak Ravid at Axios: "The [Security] Cabinet approved last night the IDF's "expansion of the area of operation" in Rafah, according to three sources who comment on the details. Two sources stated that this is a "measured expansion" that does not cross US President Joe Biden's red line. The third source stated that the approved action includes actions that could be interpreted by the US as crossing Biden's red line."

• The US has warned Israel about a ground assault in Rafah. Earlier in the week the administration paused shipment of heavy ordnance to Israel, and President Joe Biden has warnedthat crossing the US' 'red line' (the IDF going into 'population centres') would risk the halting of all US weaponry to Israel.
• This would leave the Israeli military stretched, and risk a backlash domestically for Biden. He remains in a difficult position between hawkish Democrats and the GOP calling for continued military aid to Israel, and the vocal, progressive wing of his party demanding a halt to support for the Netanyahu gov't.
• Halting military aid would be an historic step-back from the US, which has maintained support for Israel for decades. Indeed, Biden has previously claimed the US' backing of Israel's security as 'ironclad'.
• Ravid: "The three sources stated that the cabinet also instructed the Israeli negotiating team for talks on the hostage deal to continue efforts to reach a deal and try to formulate a new initiative that would lead to a breakthrough."