Bank desk views ahead of official Chinese.....>

CHINA: Bank desk views ahead of official Chinese PMI data:

- ANZ: Recent supportive policy measures are yet to be reflected in the PMI

print; thus we expect a continued decline in the manufacturing PMI to 49.4 in

February from 49.5 in January. In addition, seasonal factors could pose a drag

as the PMI tends to soften in the month when the Lunar New Year holidays take

place, even though the data series is seasonally adjusted. It will take time for

expansionary credit policy and fiscal policy to feed through as the PMIs of

local small and medium private enterprises still showed persistent weakness in

January. That said, expectations that the ongoing US China trade talks may

strike a deal could help improve business sentiment in the near term.

- TD: Manufacturing PMI edged higher last month to 49.5, but remained in

contraction territory. We expect a further stabilisation, albeit at a weak

level. Government stimulus measures taken together with hopes of a trade deal

will likely help but pressure remains as global growth weakens. Forward looking

components of the Jan PMI such as backlog of orders and new orders point to more

contraction.