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Barclays and Nomura Both Shift To 75bp Of Cuts In 2024

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Following yesterday's CPI strength, both Barclays and Nomura have delayed their start month for Fed rate cuts and see the same path over both 2024 and 2025.


  • Barclays: push back start of rate cuts from May to June, eyeing 75bp of cuts over Jun, Sept & Dec.
  • They then see one cut per quarter next year for 3.5-3.75% by end-2025.
  • Nomura: 3x25bp cuts this year (Jun, Sept & Dec) vs their prior call of 100bps starting in May. March dot plot to again show 75bp of cuts this year with the 2024 inflation forecast largely unchanged.
  • They then see 4x25bp cuts in 2025 to 3.625% before a terminal 3-3.25%.
  • On QT: “An eventual QT adjustment will be announced at a meeting where rates are left unchanged, to avoid conflating the two tools. We now expect the pace of QT to be reduced in May [$65bn/mth], consistent with the timing of prior QT-adjustments in 2019. We expect balance sheet rundown will conclude in December.”
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