Barclays and Nomura Both Shift To 75bp Of Cuts In 2024

Following yesterday's CPI strength, both Barclays and Nomura have delayed their start month for Fed rate cuts and see the same path over both 2024 and 2025.

• Barclays: push back start of rate cuts from May to June, eyeing 75bp of cuts over Jun, Sept & Dec.
• They then see one cut per quarter next year for 3.5-3.75% by end-2025.
• Nomura: 3x25bp cuts this year (Jun, Sept & Dec) vs their prior call of 100bps starting in May. March dot plot to again show 75bp of cuts this year with the 2024 inflation forecast largely unchanged.
• They then see 4x25bp cuts in 2025 to 3.625% before a terminal 3-3.25%.
• On QT: “An eventual QT adjustment will be announced at a meeting where rates are left unchanged, to avoid conflating the two tools. We now expect the pace of QT to be reduced in May [$65bn/mth], consistent with the timing of prior QT-adjustments in 2019. We expect balance sheet rundown will conclude in December.”