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BAX Futures Closing In On 25bp Of Cuts Priced For 2023

CANADA
  • The rally in BAX futures continues to lag that seen in Eurodollars at the early close, with yields falling as much as 10.5bps through 2023 compared to 1bps for Eurodollars.
  • Having recently been stickier, Canadian front rates have also cooled, but with Dec’22 yields down 6bps on the day it preserves the trend of growing inversion through 2023 with almost 25bp of cuts priced.
  • With markets closed tomorrow for Canada Day, attention quickly turns to next week’s key releases of the BoC business and consumer surveys for Q2 on Mon and labour report for June on Fri, coming right before the BoC decision on Jul 13 with currently a circa 70bp hike priced in OIS.

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