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BAX Yields Firm Despite Softer Price Pressures

CANADA
  • BAX futures have increased underperformance with Eurodollars today, especially through 2023 contracts with BAZ3 yields +3bps vs EDZ3 -3bps.
  • Local data haven't been conducive to higher yields (with industrial and raw material prices falling faster than expected, and softer house prices), but with possibly lingering support from the earlier MNI interview with former StatCan chief economic analyst Philip Cross looking for at least another 75bp hike next month to prevent inflation feeding through to wage demands whilst wanting to move away from the abstract concept of neutral rates at 2-3%.
  • A further rise in 2023 yields helps chip away at BAZ2/BAZ3 inversion, now pointing to 42bp of cuts from a peak 75bps in late July.

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