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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Bloomberg reporting that according to its sources, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss will reverse some of the economic plans announced in the 23 Sep fiscal event.
- With headline using the word 'some' this could limit the scope from a full reversal of all parts of the fiscal event to just sections, with a U-turn on the plan to scrap an increase in corporation tax from 19% to 25%.
- Steven Swinford at The Times: "[Truss and Kwarteng] are meeting shortly after chancellor flies back from Washington Plans to freeze corporation tax will be reversed - it will rise next year PM statement expected later."
- Betting markets now see Truss' leadership challenger Rishi Sunak as the most likely next PM, with a 25.6% implied probability, meaning that bettors do not believe Truss will make the next election.
- Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer second on 22.7%, with Leader of the Commons and third-placed candidate in the Conservative leadership contest Penny Mordaunt with a 15.6% implied probability.
- Bettors give an 8.3% chance that former PM Boris Johnson returns to office following Truss' ouster. Could be seen as having a 'mandate', therefore not requiring a general election.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next PM, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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