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BCB Focus Survey Due At 1125GMT

BRAZIL
  • The Brazilian real saw some mild weakness yesterday as markets reopened after the carnival holiday, but the currency remained comfortably within its recent range against the dollar. For USDBRL, attention is still on key resistance at 5.0017, the Jan 23 high. A clear break of this would open 5.0609. Initial key support to watch lies at 4.9025, the Jan 26 low.
  • Today, attention will be on the BCB’s latest economists’ survey which will be published at 1125GMT(0625ET). Of interest will be the estimate for 2024 GDP growth, which in the previous survey was held at 1.6%. However, some analysts have recently raised their GDP growth estimates closer to 2%, buoyed by one-off factors, improved credit and a strong labour market. Finance Minister Haddad also sees growth of no less than 2% this year, and BCB Governor Campos Neto recently said that growth could be a little above 2%. In a recent report, Itaú reaffirmed its 1.8% GDP growth forecast, but with an upward bias, while Bradesco is already forecasting 2% GDP growth in 2024.
  • On the political front, President Lula is in Egypt, where he will have meetings with President El-Sisi and Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit today.
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