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Bear Steeper With Geopolitics Still At Forefront

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade bear steeper, 1.5-9.5bp cheaper across the curve. The move came in early trading as a lack of meaningful weekend escalation in the Israeli-Hamas conflict (albeit seeming a matter of time until we do see that) allowed Tsys to ease further move from Friday's peak.
  • Medium-term liquidity injections from the PBoC (with an eye on government bond supply), as well as political headlines out of Europe & NZ, provided the highlights of the weekend news flow from elsewhere.
  • TYZ3 trades at the very low end of Friday’s range, currently at 107-11+ (-11+ ticks) off decent cumulative volumes of 325k. Latest flow has included a 2.5k block suggested buy at 107-10, coming in just above yesterday’s low of 107-09, whilst support remains at 106-14 (2.0% lower Bollinger band) before greater focus at 106-03+ (Oct 4 low).
  • Data: Empire Fed mfg for Oct (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Harker at 1030ET and 1630ET, both including prepared text.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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