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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Betting markets see yesterday's Super Tuesday results, which delivered comprehensive wins for President Biden and former President Trump, as slightly more beneficial for Biden, with the gap in implied probability of winning the presidential election narrowing from 10% to 5%, according to Smarkets.
- Despite the Biden's moderate bump, Trump remains the bookmarkers favourite with an implied probability of 48% of winning in November.
- Biden's bump may reflect former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley's slight overperformance which saw her notch up a surprise win in Vermont. Although that win comes with the caveat that Vermont was the state which saw Biden's strongest performance against Trump in 2020.
- Exit polls also suggested that Trump's support may dip if he were to be convicted of a crime. Trump has successfully delayed three of his four criminal trials but the ‘hush money’ trial is expected to get underway on March 25 ensuring at least one public criminal examination of Trump before the election.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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