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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
While still a long way out from the 2024 presidential election, political betting markets have shown the largest shift in betting wagers in a significant period of time over the past 24 hours, with bettors shifting money away from the re-election of President Joe Biden.
- Coinciding with the fall of the Afghan gov't and the chaotic evacuation efforts from Kabul drawing comparisons with the 1975 fall of Saigon, the implied probability of Biden winning the 2024 election has fallen to 21.3%, from 25.3% at 1pm on 15 August.
- Vice President Kamala Harris sits in second place in the betting market stakes, with an implied probability of 12.5% of winning the 2024 election, just ahead of former President Donald Trump on 12.0%.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Winning 2024 Presidential Election
Source: Betdata.io
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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