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BMO On Canadian CPI Inflation

CANADA
  • CPI came in a little below expectations in June, "for a change, but that's about where the good news ends”.
  • On the monthly rise of 0.7% M/M or 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms, whilst below consensus of 0.9%, it “would have been at the upper end of anything seen in the decade before the pandemic”. At an annualized increase of just over 8%, “today's result is better, but not good”.
  • There should be some relief likely in next month's report, as gasoline prices are currently tracking roughly a 9% drop in July, which alone will carve almost 4 ticks from the headline tally.
  • However, most of the major measures of core inflation nudged up a bit further in June (the median held steady at 4.9%), hovering around the 5% mark -- we will need to see core relent for inflation to truly peak.
  • The Bank should continue hiking in September, albeit with a more moderate 50bp move at that time.

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