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BMO on the Bank of Canada’s FSR

CANADA
  • All told, the BoC continues to view the banking system as fundamentally sound, but observes some symptoms that are consistent, and expected, within a tightening cycle.
  • The look into the mortgage market shows that those with fixed-payment variable-rate mortgages are now amortizing over significantly longer periods, but the bulk won’t see payments reset until 2025 and 2026. As we have long argued since the tightening cycle began, the mortgage market is not a time bomb, but more of persistent headwind that will blow for a few years going forward.
  • With Canadian banks also so far seeing limited fallout from U.S. bank stress, this all suggests that monetary policy is working, and the BoC is comfortable on hold for now, pending any changes in the path for inflation and the job market in the months ahead.
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