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BoC Sparks Trimming Of Fed Rate Cuts Rather Than Altering June Skip Narrative

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS rates are holding their push higher on the BoC’s decision to hike 25bp for the first time since January.
  • The move is however being seen as supporting the pre-existing June skip narrative for the Fed rather than adding to June hike pressures, with pricing only increasing 2bps to +8bps before a cumulative +21bp for July (also +2bps post-BoC).
  • Instead, the main reaction is a trimming rate cut expectations. The 5.06% for Dec’23 comes from only 23bp cuts from the July terminal, or just -2bps from the current 5.08% effective. This Dec’23 rate has increased +5bps since the BoC decision or a hefty +17bps from levels just before Friday’s payrolls – see table.

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