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BOE Pricing almost back to pre-labour market levels

SONIA
  • Following the softer CPI print (but not as soft as first glance for services CPI) UK STIR markets are now pricing in 72bp of easing over 2024 from -60bp yesterday - but still not back to the -79bp pre-labour market data (but erasing all the post-US CPI moves).
  • May pricing has moved back to 7bp of cuts (29% prob of 25bp cut) from sub-10% probability.
  • June's pricing of a cut has doubled now: Almost at 2/3 probability of a cut (-16bp priced from -8bp, close to the 17bp priced pre-labour market data).
  • August is now fully priced again with a cumulative 30bp of cuts - up from 20bp pre-data and 33bp pre-labour market.
  • Looking ahead we will hear from Governor Bailey at 15:00GMT as he testifies ahead of the Lords Economic Accounts Committee.
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