Free Trial

Bond Weak Through Second Half, Yield Curves Off Inversion


Tsys holding mixed levels after the close, yield curves steeper with bonds trading weaker through the second half, finishing near lows. Note: 5s30s inverted (recession flag) first time since first time since 2007 yesterday (-1.823 low) finished Thu +2.668 at 2.447; 5s30s bounced 4.267 to 31.280.

  • Fed policy in rear view mirror while markets still digesting forward guidance: (1.9% FF end of '22, 2.8% FF end of '23) Eurodollar short end futures firmer after EDZ2-EDH3 down as much as -0.23 Wed).
  • Back to Russia/Ukraine headline risk a constant source of market volatility. Markets keyed in on peace talk progress -- or not: stocks gapped lower/Tsys gained recently after headlines that Kremlin called reports of peace talk progress "incorrect".
  • Friday data roundup, at 0830ET:
    • Existing Home Sales (6.5M, 6.18M)
    • Existing Home Sales MoM (6.7%, -5.0%)
    • Leading Index (-0.3%, 0.3%)
  • Fed speakers out of Blackout:
    • MN Fed Kashkari on capital, energy sectors at 1200ET
    • Richmond Fed Barkin economic outlook at 1320ET
    • Fed Gov Bowman, Fed listens event: Helping Youth Thrive at 1400ET
  • Meanwhile, President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold a telephone call on Friday, time TBA.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 1.9364%, 5-Yr is down 1.7bps at 2.1642%, 10-Yr is up 0.7bps at 2.1921%, and 30-Yr is up 3.4bps at 2.4864%.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.