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Booming Iranian Foreign Reserves May Spell End Of JCPOA Talks

SECURITY

Gabrielle Noronha, a former Iran official at the US State department, has written an informative Twitter thread on the effect of Iranian oil sales to China on the prospect of a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action accord. Some select quotes below:

  • "The value of Chinese imports of Iranian oil nearly quadrupled in 2021 when the Biden Administration stopped enforcing U.S. sanctions on Iran."
  • "The Biden Administration didn't sanction any individuals or entities involved in China's imports of Iranian oil until 3 weeks ago."
  • "...predictably, Iran's foreign exchange reserves surged from a low of USD$4 billion in 2020. They are now on track to hit USD$40 billion in reserves by the end of 2022."
  • "The United States' refusal to stop this illicit oil trade almost certainly doomed the Biden Administration's attempt to sign their new (weaker) deal with Iran."
  • Noronha's analysis provides some context to the collapse of JCPOA talks in Qatar on Friday. It also shows why the US Treasury Department moved to swiftly reapply sanctions on the Iranian oil industry immediately after the collapse of talks.
  • Full thread here: https://twitter.com/GLNoronha/status/1545087048171...
FIGURE 1: Iranian Foreign Reserves (Source: Gabrielle Noronha Twitter)

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