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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Sinan Oğan, a far-right nationalist candidate who came in a distant third place in the first round presidential election has endorsed incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ahead of the 28 May runoff with main opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Given that he received 49.5% of the vote in the first round and his People's Alliance secured a majority in the Grand National Assembly, Erdoğan was already seen as the strong favourite to win re-election.
- Even if only a modest fraction of the 2.8mn voters that backed Oğan in the first round switch to Erdoğan it will likely be enough to secure a third term for the incumbent.
- Political betting market data from Smarkets shows Erdoğan with an 87.7% implied probability of winning the run off to Kılıçdaroğlu's 11.3% (see chart below).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Turkish Election, %
Source: Smarkets. N.b. Erdogan=gold, Kilicdaroglu=red
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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