Breach Of Kakhovka Dam Risks Zaporizhzhia NPP; Ukraine Counteroffensive

The breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam upriver of the Dnipro from the city of Kherson poses significant risks to the stable functioning of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (NPP) as well as making any potential Ukrainian amphibious counterattack from the western bank of the Dnipro a much more difficult prospect.

• A senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the dam's destruction is an attempt by Russia to "raise the stakes" and scare everyone with the possibility of nuclear catastrophe. This refers to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which draws the water required to cool its reactors from the reservoir created by the Nova Kakhovka dam. Should the water level drop significantly it could risk the stability of the Russian-held plant, and in the worst-case scenario lead to a meltdown. The IAEA has said it is closely monitoring the situation but that there is “no immediate nuclear safety risk”.
• So far both Ukraine and Russia have denied responsibility for the breach. Given the risk to the civilian population in Kherson, the risk to Zaporizhzhia NPP, and the delay that the breach could cause to any amphibious Ukrainian counteroffensive towards the Russian-held east bank of the Dnipro makes the prospect of Ukraine seeking to damage the dam a slim one.
• The confirmation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive has not been made by Kyiv yet, although numerous reports of offensive actions from Ukrainian units in Donetsk would seem to signal that significant manoeuvres are set to take place.