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Bull Steeper With Equities Under Pressure, PMIs In Focus Before 5Y

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are off highs but remain firmer on balance with equity futures weakness (following yesterday’s after-market earnings) and net softer than expected Eurozone flash PMIs (German miss offset a French beat).
  • Curves have steepened further, with the front-end underpinned by yesterday’s particularly strong 2Y auction and seeing further support from former NY Fed President Dudley writing that he's changed his mind and that the Fed needs to cut now rather than wait until September unnecessarily increases the risk of a recession (here).
  • The longer end has seen a larger paring of intraday gains, and follows yesterday’s late sell-off linked to corporate debt issuance. It's helped at the margin by Reuters sources saying the BoJ could next week unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in coming years (along with a debate about hiking which had less impact at the front-end) .
  • A Reuters/Ipsos poll sees Harris lead Trump 44% to 42% in the US presidential race.
  • Cash yields are 0.5-2.5bp lower on the day whilst 2s10s at -18.8bps touches new highs since January, partly a mechanical shunt higher on the new 2Y benchmark but also having steepened both before and after this impact.
  • TYU4 at 110-27+ (- 00+) is off an earlier high of 110-31 but has remained within yesterday’s range overnight, amidst solid cumulative volumes of 330k.
  • There’s some reluctance to push much higher, after Monday’s low of 110-18+ probed support at the 20-day EMA (110-21+) to open the 50-day EMA (110-08+).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgages (0700ET), Adv. goods balance Jun (0830ET), Wholesale/retail inventories Jun p/Jun (0830ET), S&P Global US PMIs Jul prelim (0945ET), New home sales Jun (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN Note (1130ET), US Tsy $70B 5Y Note auction - 91282CLC3 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W bill auctions (1130ET)
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