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Bunds Little Changed To Start The Week

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Bund futures trade around levels seen late on Friday, last -4 at 130.04 (tight range of 130.03-21 seen thus far)

  • The bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play The extension lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low.
  • Meanwhile, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA (130.81).
  • German yields are flat to 1bp lower across the curve.
  • 2- & 5-Year German yields hit fresh multi-month highs last week, with some hawkish repricing in broader STIR markets filtering in.
  • Weekend ECB-speak generally reaffirmed recent messaging, playing down wage-related worries when it comes to inflation feedthrough, while guiding heavily towards a June cut.
  • Chief economist Lane underscored the need for restrictive policy settings through ’24, even as he greenlighted a June cut.
  • Lane is scheduled to speak again today, with comments from GC hawk Holzmann also due.
  • The German IFO survey headlines today’s data European data calendar. Survey expectations point to a modest uptick in all of the major metrics.
  • This week’s broader regional focus is set to fall on May’s flash inflation data. The German regional and national readings will cross on Wednesday, with the Eurozone readings due Friday.
  • On the supply front, Monday will see the EU come to market with up to EUR2.5bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond and up to EUR2.5bln of the short 20-year 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond. Belgium will also look to hold a conventional auction today, with E2.0-2.5bln combined of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs on offer.
  • On the syndication front, we see Spain as the most likely issuance candidate this week.
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Bund futures trade around levels seen late on Friday, last -4 at 130.04 (tight range of 130.03-21 seen thus far)

  • The bear cycle in Bund futures remains in play The extension lower has exposed the key support and bear trigger at 129.53, the Apr 25 low.
  • Meanwhile, initial resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA (130.81).
  • German yields are flat to 1bp lower across the curve.
  • 2- & 5-Year German yields hit fresh multi-month highs last week, with some hawkish repricing in broader STIR markets filtering in.
  • Weekend ECB-speak generally reaffirmed recent messaging, playing down wage-related worries when it comes to inflation feedthrough, while guiding heavily towards a June cut.
  • Chief economist Lane underscored the need for restrictive policy settings through ’24, even as he greenlighted a June cut.
  • Lane is scheduled to speak again today, with comments from GC hawk Holzmann also due.
  • The German IFO survey headlines today’s data European data calendar. Survey expectations point to a modest uptick in all of the major metrics.
  • This week’s broader regional focus is set to fall on May’s flash inflation data. The German regional and national readings will cross on Wednesday, with the Eurozone readings due Friday.
  • On the supply front, Monday will see the EU come to market with up to EUR2.5bln of the on-the-run long 3-year 2.875% Dec-27 EU-bond and up to EUR2.5bln of the short 20-year 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond. Belgium will also look to hold a conventional auction today, with E2.0-2.5bln combined of on-the-run 10/30-year OLOs on offer.
  • On the syndication front, we see Spain as the most likely issuance candidate this week.