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Business Inflation Expectations Steady In May, Progress In Quarterly Survey

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  • The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations were essentially unchanged in May with the 1Y ahead unit costs expected to increase 2.31% vs 2.28% in April.
  • It's still notable as it doesn't follow the recent increase in consumer-based surveys for 1Y ahead measures.
  • Instead, business expectations continue to plateau at the 2.3% mark averaged since January after moderating through 2023, although they remain above the 1.9% averaged in 2019.

The quarterly questions shows further signs of moderation:

  • Looking back over the past twelve months, realized price changes averaged 4.5% vs the 6.0% when asked in Feb.
  • Looking over the next twelve months, firms expect to increase prices by an average 3.4% vs the 3.8% when asked in Feb. This is back to the recent low of 3.4% in Oct for lows since mid-2021.
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  • The Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations were essentially unchanged in May with the 1Y ahead unit costs expected to increase 2.31% vs 2.28% in April.
  • It's still notable as it doesn't follow the recent increase in consumer-based surveys for 1Y ahead measures.
  • Instead, business expectations continue to plateau at the 2.3% mark averaged since January after moderating through 2023, although they remain above the 1.9% averaged in 2019.

The quarterly questions shows further signs of moderation:

  • Looking back over the past twelve months, realized price changes averaged 4.5% vs the 6.0% when asked in Feb.
  • Looking over the next twelve months, firms expect to increase prices by an average 3.4% vs the 3.8% when asked in Feb. This is back to the recent low of 3.4% in Oct for lows since mid-2021.