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CAD Rates Retrace Some Of BoC Sell-Off Ahead Of Beaudry, Jobs Report

CANADA
  • BAX futures remain off highs seen in the extended move after higher US initial claims but still see a reasonable rally on the day.
  • It sees implied yields for the Jun’23 -1.5bps, Dec’23 -5.5bps and Jun’24 -8bps, with the BAM3/Z3 spread cut 4bps to +25bps after yesterday’s close was one of the highest seen since the Z3 started trading in Dec’20. For context though, Jun and Sep’23 yields are still 12bps higher post-BOC, with subsequent contracts 16-17bps higher.
  • Near-term, BOC-dated OIS prices a 16-17bp hike for the Jul 12 decision, with upcoming tests from Beaudry later today as mentioned earlier before tomorrow’s labour report.
  • The latter is the first of two jobs reports before the next BoC, with consensus for solid jobs creation to be offset by higher labour supply and the u/e rate drifting a tenth higher to 5.1% but still near series lows.

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