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California's Democratic party Governor Gavin Newsom looks set to avoid a recall in today's special election, with all opinion polls carried out over the past month showing the 'no to recall' campaign comfortably ahead of those calling for the governor's removal from office.

  • In the unlikely but not impossible event that the polls are substantially wrong and Newsom is recalled, Republican radio host and writer Larry Elder is the frontrunner to replace the governor according to recent polling. Youtuber, landlord and real estate broker David Paffrath, a Democrat, is running in a distant second place to replace Newsom should the recall go ahead.
  • The recall election gained momentum as California's COVID-19 situation become one of the worst in the US in 2020 and early 2021, but the relative success of the vaccine programme in the state (which has a higher takeup rate than many other US states) has seen Newsom's popularity recover and support for his recall decline.