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CDU Retake Polling Lead As FDP Reaches Highest Support In 11 Years

GERMANY

Latest poll from Forsa shows the centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) retaking the lead over the environmentalist Greens. This is the seventh consecutive federal opinion poll showing the Union parties in the lead, after a slump in support in April following the selection of Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate for the September federal election.

  • Forsa poll: CDU/CSU: 25% (+1), Green: 24% (-1), SPD: 14%, FDP: 14% (+1), AfD: 9% (-1), Linke: 6%, +/- vs. 18-21 May 2021, Fieldwork: 25-31 May 2021, Sample size: 2,500
  • The poll puts the liberal, pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) level with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) on 14%. This is the highest polling support the party has received since November 2009, and if matched in the federal election would be the party's best result since the September 2009 election.
  • The FDP would historically be the CDU-CSU's most comfortable coalition partner, with the two parties having formed coalitions under the chancellery's of Konrad Adenauer, Ludwig Erhard, Helmut Kohl and between 2009 and 2013 under Angela Merkel. However, it is widely suspected that Laschet would prefer to form a coalition with the Greens than the FDP given his policy leanings that lean more towards a greater role for the state in the economy which is at odds with the FDP's libertarian stance.
  • All political focus this weekend in Germany is on the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. Latest polls have shown the CDU leading the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), but the race is close. Should the CDU fall to second place it would deal a significant blow to Laschet's standing, given the already vocal campaign from the right of his party to shift policy in a more overtly conservative direction. For more information see ourSaxony-Anhalt Election Preview.

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