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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
German market participants and political observers will be closely watching the regional election coming up in eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday 6 June as it provides the final electoral contest in the country before the federal election due in September.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Saxony-Anhalt Election.pdf
Opinion polls point towards a difficult contest for the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which currently governs at the state level in a 'Kenya' coalition alongside the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and environmentalist Greens. While the CDU is shown as likely holding onto a plurality, it appears likely to lose seats compared to the 2016 election. In the event the CDU falls behind the second-largest party in the state's Landtag – the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) – it could place significant pressure on CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, who continues to trail his Green competitor Annalena Baerbock in 'preferred chancellor' opinion polling.
Main Takeaways
- Anything other than retaining first place in Saxony-Anhalt will be viewed as a failure for the CDU and its chancellor candidate Armin Laschet.
- The right-wing nationalist AfD is on course to present a strong challenge to the CDU, but is very unlikely to be part of the next governing coalition.
- The ability of the CDU to hold off the AfD could give an indication of how well the party might fare in eastern states with a strong AfD vote in the federal election due in September.
Source: dawum.de, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.