CEE FX: Reaction in CE3 FX to NFP Miss Limited

The weak US NFP figures led to a brief and moderate downtick for EURHUF, though much of the move has since reversed with the cross close to pre-data levels. The miss prompted a partial reversal of earlier session losses for EURPLN, while EURCZK was unfazed. A full technical update can be found below. Across global markets, the greenback sank sharply to new session lows on the release, while equities are sinking in tandem with US yields.

• EURHUF has rallied this week, extending the recovery that started Jul 22. A continuation higher would pave the way for 398.85, the Jun 14 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a climb towards 399.75, the Mar 12 high and a key medium-term resistance. 
• EURPLN traded sharply higher on Jul 16 and this was followed by a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. For now, short-term gains appear to have been a correction. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4.2471, the May 28 and Jul 15 low. For bulls, initial resistance is at 4.3044, the Jul 25 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4.3321, the Jul 2 high.
• For EURCZK, a break of Monday’s low at 25.312 would disrupt the trend of higher-highs and higher-lows, potentially signaling scope for a sustained move lower towards 25.208, the Jul 19/22 lows. Note that EURCZK briefly broke through 25.519 yesterday, reaching its highest level since March 2022. A close above this level would send a strong bullish signal.