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Vulnerable Despite Recent Bounce


Probes Key Short-Term Support


Selling Into Late Session Bounce


Citi See Softer Payrolls But Quick Drop In U/E Rate


Tactical Plays For Potential Accelerated Taper

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  • EURHUF traded higher yesterday. This week's price action has resulted in a confirmed break of 362.46, the Jul 26 high and a key resistance. The break reinforces bullish conditions and opens 364.40, Apr 23 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 358.56, Oct 15 low.
  • EURPLN traded higher Thursday and remains above 4.5392, Oct 7 low. This is a key short-term support. The sharp bull reversal on Oct 7 signalled the end of the recent Sep-30 to Oct 7 correction. If correct, it suggests scope for a move higher towards 4.6480, Sep 30 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case and open 4.6800, Mar 29 high. Weakness below 4.5392 alters the picture.
  • USDZAR has this week breached support at 14.5701, Sep 23 low. The pair has recently also cleared the 50-day EMA and this, together with the break of 14.5701, signals scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on 14.3444, 76.4% of the Sep 10 - 30 rally that has provided support. A break would expose 14.0639, the Sep 10 low. 14.7579, the 20-day EMA marks initial resistance.
  • USDTRY bulls are still very much in control. The pair has rallied to a fresh trend high and this confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. With technical trend readings still in the bull camp, further upside is seen likely. The focus is on 9.6639, 2.382 projection of the Sep 22 - 29 - Oct 1 price swing. Key support is at 9.2050, the Oct 20 low.
  • USDRUB weakness has resumed and the pair is trading at fresh trend lows once again. The break lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and an extension is likely. 70.00 has been probed. The focus is on 69.0589, Jun 26 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is at 71.3034, the Oct 21 high.