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China Gas Demand to Grow in 2024 on Industry and Gas in Power: OIES

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China gas demand is expected to grow over 25bcm y/y in 2024 on industrial activity combined with more gas in power according to OIES.

  • The government has set a growth target of “around 5%” likely supported by efforts to stabilise the real estate market, more industrial support and modest increases in consumption.
  • Government support for industrial development and decarbonisation plans are likely to boost gas demand in industry and power sectors.
  • Gas for transport rose in 2023 and is likely to gain again this year as long as spot LNG prices remain soft.
  • Gas in power is expected to grow by 5bcm according to CNPC with 30GW of new gas-fired capacity planned for 2024-2025.
  • Low LNG prices could favour spot demand potentially at the expense of term contracts and pipeline flows with LNG imports to rise by 10bcm y/y but with upside risks.
  • There are incentives to accelerate their construction amid low gas prices despite competition from coal and renewables.
  • Increasing spot purchases and PipeChina’s efforts to increase infrastructure will be important market drivers this year.


Source: OIES

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