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CIBC Above Consensus For Jan CPI

CANADA
  • Ahead of January CPI to be released on Feb 21, CIBC see headline holding at 6.3% Y/Y contrary to consensus of a 20bp moderation to 6.1% Y/Y.
  • Monthly non-seasonally adjusted inflation of 0.8% M/M could have been driven by a slight rebound in gasoline prices and a further rapid increase in mortgage interest costs.
  • “However, further moderation in imported goods prices should mean that core inflation excluding food, energy and mortgage interest likely rose at a monthly pace which is broadly consistent with a 2% inflation target.”
  • They see headline CPI falling below 3% by June before the final leg back to 2% lasting into 2024.
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