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CIBC Don't See Any BoC Rate Relief Until Spring 2024

CANADA
  • CIBC note that "hiking further adds to the risk that the BoC gets more than it is bargaining for in terms of the sharpness of the economic slowdown ahead", even if an extra 25 or even 50bp will have a limit macroeconomic impact in terms of hard landing probabilities.
  • After recent upward growth revisions for both the US and Canada, the starting point for 2H23 was at least a somewhat healthier backdrop.
  • "Still, it will be important for the Bank, and the Fed, to avoid hiking at every meeting to ensure that they can pick up the early signals of a slowdown before overdoing the monetary tightening."
  • "Given the need to push inflation lower, we expect that neither the Fed nor the BoC will offer any interest rate relief until late spring 2024."
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