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COLOMBIA: Analysts Tilting Towards Another 50BP Cut in September

COLOMBIA
  • *JP Morgan: The majority of the BanRep committee may prefer to wait for the September CPI report before accelerating the easing pace, according to JPM. Thus, they tweak their monetary policy call for this month and now expect a 50bp cut (though note it is a close call if the Fed starts its easing cycle with a 50bp cut). JPM maintain as base case the Board cutting the policy rate by 75bp in both October and December, driving the policy rate to 8.75% by the year-end.
  • *Goldman Sachs: The benign August print confirmed that inflation pressures across several categories have eased in a steady manner, while also corroborated that the highly inertial rent components will likely remain a drag on the disinflation process in the remainder of the year. At this juncture, Goldman Sachs maintain their base case of a 50bp cut at the September MPC meeting, but acknowledge that the probability of a bolder 75bp move has shifted up after today and also July’s favourable reading.
  • *BBVA: In terms of monetary policy decisions, the data will have a positive reading, mainly due to the reduction in non-food inflation, which gives BanRep room for a possible acceleration of its reductions in the next meetings. Despite this, the Bank of the Republic has received mixed signals on economic activity, so there is still a bias for the path of reductions to be less aggressive than what BBVA Research has proposed.
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