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Continued Orderly Decline In House Prices

CANADA DATA
  • Teranet house prices continued to chip lower in February by -0.4% M/M having averaged -0.7% M/M in the prior four months vs heavier declines of an average -1.6% M/M in Q3.
  • The series, with its repeat-sales method, continues to see smaller declines than from existing home sales data which saw a larger increase in the pandemic.
  • BoC current focus will clearly be on banking resilience spilling over from US regional banks, although the next meeting is not until Apr 12.
  • However, in terms of the still significant risk that is the sharp decline in housing activity amongst high household indebtedness, the Bank will likely be pleased with the pace of house price declines. It continues to take some of the prior froth out of the market in what appears an orderly manner whilst prices are still 25% above pre-pandemic levels.

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