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Continued Sell-Off On Larger Rate Hikes

CANADA
  • FI: GoCs are on track for a reasonable bear steepening today with front-end yields up 6bps and long-end up 9-9.5bps in a continuation of yesterday’s Powell-driven sell-off.
  • Some of this is likely driven by the BAX curve catching up with moves in Eurodollars yesterday (down as much as 9 ticks today), whilst the broader risk-on sentiment has more than offset the flattening you’d expect to see in GoCs on such a move.
  • There have been few local drivers aside from perhaps the stronger than expected industrial product and raw materials price inflation although there was little market reaction at the time as Bullard headlines hit shortly after.
  • FX: USDCAD trades -0.15% at 1.2574 after session lows just off yesterday’s low of 1.2565 as risk-sensitive currencies firm against the USD.
  • A break of this newly formed support could open 1.2552 (Fibo retracement of the Jan19-Feb 24 rally) after which it could open the 1.24 handle.
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