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Control Of Senate In November Too Close To Call


The race for control of the United States Senate remains too close to call ahead of the November midterms despite the persistently poor approval rating of President Joe Biden.

  • The FiveThirtyEight election model returns 53 in 100 Republican wins to 47 in 100 Democrat wins, within the margin of error for the model.
  • It appears that Democrat chances are improved by poor Republican campaigns in several key seats.
  • FiveThirtyEight suggests that Pennsylvania is one such state which the open seat should provide the Republican party a straightforward win. However, the race is rated a toss-up and Democrat candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is well clear of GOP nominee Mehmet Oz in all polls.
  • Republicans best chance of a pickup is likely to be Georgia where Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is maintaining a slim lead over Republican candidate Herschel Walker.
Figure 1: Control of the Senate 2022 (FiveThirtyEight)

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