July 14, 2022 15:45 GMT
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The race for control of the United States Senate remains too close to call ahead of the November midterms despite the persistently poor approval rating of President Joe Biden.
- The FiveThirtyEight election model returns 53 in 100 Republican wins to 47 in 100 Democrat wins, within the margin of error for the model.
- It appears that Democrat chances are improved by poor Republican campaigns in several key seats.
- FiveThirtyEight suggests that Pennsylvania is one such state which the open seat should provide the Republican party a straightforward win. However, the race is rated a toss-up and Democrat candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is well clear of GOP nominee Mehmet Oz in all polls.
- Republicans best chance of a pickup is likely to be Georgia where Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is maintaining a slim lead over Republican candidate Herschel Walker.
Figure 1: Control of the Senate 2022 (FiveThirtyEight)