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Core CPI at Fresh High, Ups Pressure on Norges Bank

NORWAY
MNI (London)

NORWAY JUN CPI +0.6% M/M; +6.4% Y/Y (FCST +6.3%); MAY +6.7% Y/Y

NORWAY JUN UNDERLYING CPI +0.9% M/M; +7.0% Y/Y (FCST +6.6%); MAY +6.7% Y/Y

  • Norway's June inflation report was mixed, yet likely to add to inflation-concerns at Norges Bank after underlying CPI-ATE (ex. tax changes and energy) reached a fresh series high.
  • Headline CPI was 0.1pp stronger than expectations, cooling by 0.3pp to +6.4% y/y. The decline was largely driven by the -4.3% y/y fall in energy.
  • Yet underlying Norwegian CPI surprised to the upside, accelerating by 0.3pp to +7.0% y/y against expectations of a 0.1pp slowdown.
  • Core goods inflation accounted for the bulk of upwards core pressure, assisted by stronger clothing and furnishing inflation.
  • The June report also flagged stronger price pressures in certain services.
  • CPI-ATE for recreation and culture quickened by 1.8pp to +9.1% y/y, yet restaurants and hotels slowed by 1.9pp to +5.6% y/y and transport by a 2.9pp to +3.2% y/y.
  • A 25bp hike at the August Norges Bank meeting had been anticipated, however the stickiness of underlying CPI will provide hawks with ammunition to put a 50bp hike back on the table.

Source: Statistics Norway

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