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Core CPI On Tap, NBP Dep Gov Expects Economic Soft Landing

POLAND
  • The NBP will publish core CPI data for December this afternoon (14:00CET/13:00GMT). The data should not be a market-mover, with most analysts estimating it to be +11.5-11.6% Y/Y based on the outturns for headline inflation. Several NBP members have recently flagged concerns about the stickiness of core inflation, which has kept rising despite a moderation in headline numbers.
  • NBP First Deputy Governor Marta Kightley told Business Insider she expects a soft landing for the Polish economy. She reaffirmed the central bank's expectation that inflation would spike at the beginning of this year before disinflation takes hold, which will be driven by the underlying price-setting mechanisms rather than merely the statistical base effect. Kightley does not sit on the NBP's Monetary Policy Council.
  • Prime Minister Mateusz is visiting Berlin for the 50th anniversary of Wolfgang Schauble's political activity and will discuss the energy situation, geopolitics and aid for Ukraine with top German and foreign officials. Morawiecki told RMF FM radio station that he would try to convince Chancellor Olaf Scholz to greenlight the donation of Poland's Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine. The re-export of tanks requires the approval of Germany which has produced them.
  • During his interview with RMF FM, Morawiecki suggested that Poland could file a request to unlock EU recovery funds "in about 10 days." Warsaw expects to receive the first tranche of the funds in 2H2023, if the key court bill agreed with the European Commission is adopted.
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