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CPI Inflation Ahead, 0830ET

CANADA
  • CPI gets particular attention considering the next jobs report lands after the BoC decision on Sep 7, a meeting for which yesterday’s Bloomberg survey showed a 75bp hike just edging 50bps (9 vs 8 of 17).
  • Consensus sees headline CPI falling five tenths to 7.6% Y/Y with an average of 7.53% Y/Y and an analyst range of 7.0-7.8%.
  • The average of the BoC’s three core measures is unchanged at 5.0%, with only core-common rising a tenth to 4.7% after a huge +0.6pt upward revision in last month’s release.
  • Those revisions have seen questions on the reliability of these measures with some focus on the traditional ex-food & energy measure, but here there are mixed views from June’s 5.3% Y/Y, with Scotia looking for 5.8% and CIBC 5.0%.

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