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CPI Surprises At a Hot +7.1%

MNI (London)

FRANCE OCT FLASH HICP +1.3% M/M (FCST +0.6%); SEP -0.5% M/M

FRANCE OCT FLASH HICP +7.1% Y/Y (FCST +6.5%); SEP +6.2% Y/Y

  • French inflation surged by 0.9pp to +7.1% y/y in the October flash estimate, up +1.3% m/m alone. This is substantially higher than forecasts of +0.6% m/m and +6.5% y/y.
  • Strong accelerations were seen across Energy (+19.2% y/y after +17.9%) and food (+11.8% y/y after +9.9%), whilst services continued to expand at the September rate (+3.2% y/y).
  • With no slowing across the sub-indexes, core inflation is also anticipated to have increased again following brief September relief. The core index is due with the final release.
  • Global energy and food prices have been extremely high following the onset of the Ukraine war, spilling over into more broad-based price pressures.
  • This hot CPI beat adds substantial upside pressure to the aggregate eurozone print. Consensus at present expects a 0.6pp slowing to +9.4% y/y.

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