MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12

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MNI: BRAZIL'S COPOM RAISES SELIC RATE BY 100BPS TO 12.25%

MNI: SWEDEN FINAL NOV CPIF +1.8% Y/Y

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE +3.9%

MNI: US NOV TREASURY BUDGET -$366.8B

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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Day ahead

BONDS
  • PMIs will be the highlight for the day ahead with Bloomberg surveys for French, German, Eurozone and UK all showing expectations are for lower prints for manufacturing, services and composite for each country.
  • PMIs are, of course, a diffussion index and simply focus on whether things are getting better or worse.
  • Outside the end of the "petrol crisis" in the UK, there has not really been a lot of positive news coverage in terms of supply chains while gas prices have stabilised a little but oil and to a lesser extent electricity prices have continued to rise. Covid-19 cases have also started to pick up a bit in the UK and Germany but seem unlikely to bring too many concerns among business yet.
  • In terms of market moves today, it might be the underlying price concerns in the indices that have more impact than the headline numbers. It appears as though inflation concerns are a bigger driver for markets than growth concerns at present.
  • Outside of this gilts will continue to digest Huw Pill's comments in which he sounds close to hiking but notes that markets may be too excited about rate hikes.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 130-04+ with 10y UST yields down -3.1bp at 1.672% and 2y yields down -0.6bp at 0.450%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.06 today at 168.19 with 10y Bund yields up 1.3bp at -0.90% and Schatz yields up 0.7bp at -0.665%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.08 today at 123.62 with 10y yields down -0.2bp at 1.198% and 2y yields up 0.2bp at 0.704%.
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