MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1896 Tues; -1.71% Y/Y

CANADA TO PUBLISH FISCAL UPDATE ON DEC. 16

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Deutsche Bank Maintain Bullish USD Sentiment

USD
  • Deutsche Bank is not convinced that a peak in US growth optimism and hawkish Fed pricing are sufficient reasons to turn bearish on the USD. DB remain bullish and given their negative bias on EUR, CHF, JPY and SEK, they like buying DXY, which has a combined weight of 80% on these ccys and positive carry of more than 2%, the latter mattering in a low-volatility environment.
  • While the Fed has repriced hawkishly since the start of the year, so have the majority of the world's central banks. With US fiscal policy among the most growth-supportive in G10 and policy pass-through the least, the risks still seem skewed towards pricing more policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of the world. Still, even with the current Fed easing cycle that is priced, the level of US rates remains highly supportive of the greenback. With current market pricing the dollar is set to remain the second-highest-yielding currency in the developed world, a status that has historically been supportive of portfolio inflows and USD outperformance.
  • The US election remains a major constraint to dollar downside. Geopolitical risk premium has been a big source of support of the dollar over the last decade. The universe of perceived safe-haven currencies has shrunk so much that no G10 FX currency is now negatively correlated to equity performance bar the USD. On this front the US election continues to stand out as a historical geopolitical event risk.
  • An unexpected downturn in US data or a pivot to emphasizing a weak-dollar policy from a potential Trump administration would be the biggest risks to their view.
EM BulletHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange Bullets
EM BulletHomepageBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.