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Disappointing Q3 Investment Data But Positive Outlook

AUSTRALIA DATA

Private Capital expenditure for Q3 came in a lot weaker than expected falling 0.6% q/q to be +1.7% y/y after Q2 was revised up to flat. This data is real and is likely to be a slight drag on Q3 GDP but investment intentions point to a positive outlook.

  • The softness in the total was driven by the plant & machinery component which fell 1.6% q/q after rising strongly the previous two quarters. It now stands 2.2% higher than a year ago. Building rose 0.5% q/q after declining the previous two quarters.
  • The mining sector was another driver of the weak result falling 5.1% q/q compared to +1.4% for non-mining. But investment intentions in the sector are 3% higher for 2022-23 and non-mining 6.8%.
  • Total investment intentions for 2022-23 rose 5.6% compared with the previous estimate and are now higher than the previous financial year. This was predominantly driven by plant & machinery expectations rising 10.4%. Building rose 2.3%.
  • Capex growth has been lacklustre this year and the Q3 2022 level was 2.6% below the Q4 2018 peak but 3.5% higher than Q4 2019.
Australia real capex %

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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