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ECB Easing Expectations Move Away From Hawkish Extremes

STIR

The softer than expected UK CPI this morning sees ECB 2024 implied rates move away from yesterday's hawkish extremes. ECB-dated OIS contracts now price 113bps of rate cuts through 2024 (vs a low of 108bps yesterday afternoon but still below Monday's close of around 120bps).

  • The Euribor strip is +1.5 to +3.5 though the blues, unsurprisingly underperforming SONIA.
  • Today's docket features ECB speak from Vujcic (which was scheduled for 0800GMT/0900CET) and de Guindos (0830GMT/0930CET) at the conference of Mediterranean Central Banks, while Executive Board member Cipollone speaks on the digital Euro at 1400GMT/1500CET. The Bundesbank's Nagel rounds off the day at 1700GMT/1800CET, joining a panel discussion on "How will financing work in the future?".
  • On the data front, we get the preliminary Eurozone Q4 GDP reading at 1000GMT/1100CET. The advance release from Jan 30 printed at 0.0% Q/Q and 0.1% Y/Y. December IP is also released alongside GDP - note that we have received 87.5% of the country-level data on IP already, so a large deviation from consensus is unlikely.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.885-2.4
Apr-243.769-14.0
Jun-243.561-34.8
Jul-243.378-53.1
Sep-243.153-75.6
Oct-242.968-94.1
Dec-242.783-112.6
Jan-252.635-127.4
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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