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ECB Pricing Fairly Steady, New Cypriot Central Bank Governor Non-Commital

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HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures have twist steepened on the day, running +2.0 to -2.0 through the blues.

  • Very modest dovish moves are seen in ’24 ECB-dated OIS, with contracts little changed to 1.5bp softer on the day. ~21.5bp of cuts are priced through June, with the GC already heavily guiding towards such a move. ~76bp of cumulative cuts are showing through year end.
  • There hasn’t been much in the way of meaningful macro headlines to go off, leaving core global FI markets to weigh up the recent run of data, hawkish repricing of central bank policy paths, geopolitics and this week’s incoming supply.
  • Comments from the new Governor of the Cypriot central bank were perhaps a little more neutral than you would expect, as he underscored the data-dependent nature of the central bank’s policy settings.
  • ECB President Lagarde will provide a lecture at Yale University later today, but don’t expect that to be a market mover. Elsewhere, GC member Villeroy will speak on climate finance. Once again, don’t expect that to be a market mover given the topic and as Villeroy already spoke over the weekend (pointing to the need for “pragmatic” policy steps after a cut in June).
  • Tomorrow’s flash PMIs present the next regional focal point.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.693-21.7
Jul-243.576-33.5
Sep-243.398-51.2
Oct-243.300-61.0
Dec-243.152-75.8
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Euribor futures have twist steepened on the day, running +2.0 to -2.0 through the blues.

  • Very modest dovish moves are seen in ’24 ECB-dated OIS, with contracts little changed to 1.5bp softer on the day. ~21.5bp of cuts are priced through June, with the GC already heavily guiding towards such a move. ~76bp of cumulative cuts are showing through year end.
  • There hasn’t been much in the way of meaningful macro headlines to go off, leaving core global FI markets to weigh up the recent run of data, hawkish repricing of central bank policy paths, geopolitics and this week’s incoming supply.
  • Comments from the new Governor of the Cypriot central bank were perhaps a little more neutral than you would expect, as he underscored the data-dependent nature of the central bank’s policy settings.
  • ECB President Lagarde will provide a lecture at Yale University later today, but don’t expect that to be a market mover. Elsewhere, GC member Villeroy will speak on climate finance. Once again, don’t expect that to be a market mover given the topic and as Villeroy already spoke over the weekend (pointing to the need for “pragmatic” policy steps after a cut in June).
  • Tomorrow’s flash PMIs present the next regional focal point.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.693-21.7
Jul-243.576-33.5
Sep-243.398-51.2
Oct-243.300-61.0
Dec-243.152-75.8