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EGB/Gilt: Potential For ECB Hawkish Surprise

BOND SUMMARY

European government bonds have traded weaker ahead of today's ECB meeting with equities broadly higher on the day.

  • While consensus seems to expect no material policy changes from the ECB today, we warn that there is still potential for a hawkish surprise, particularly in relation to the current asset purchase taper and a decision on Q3 net purchases. Refer to our ECB preview for further details.
  • Gilts have traded weaker through the morning with the curve bear steepening. Cash yields are up 2-6bp with the 2s30s spread widening 3bp.
  • The long end of the bund curve has similarly underperformed with the 2s30s spread trading up 4bp.
  • OATs have traded lower with the curve only slightly steeper. Cash yields are 3-4bp higher on the day.
  • BTPs trade broadly in line with core EGBs with yields now up 3-6bp.
  • Supply this morning came from the UK (UKTBs, GBP3.0bn).
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