EGB Supply W/C Oct 10, 2022

The EU, the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal and Italy will all look to issue bonds this week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E29.2bln from announced operations, up from last week’s E23.6bln.

• The EU is due to hold a syndication this week. Both NGEU and MFA funds are expected to be raised. We expect the transaction to take place tomorrow.
• The Netherlands will kick off auction issuance for the week tomorrow with E1.5-2.5bln of the 0% Jan-29 DSL (ISIN: NL0015000LS8) on offer.
• Also tomorrow, Germany will look to reopen the 0.40% Sep-24 Schatz (ISIN: DE0001104891) for E5.5bln.
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 1.70% Aug-32 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102606) on offer.
• Also Wednesday, Portugal will look to sell E0.75-1.00bln combined of 3/9-year OTs: the 2.875% Oct-25 OT (ISIN: PTOTEKOE0011) and the 0.30% Oct-31 OT (ISIN: PTOTEOOE0033).
• Italy will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday with 3/7/15-50-year BTPs on offer. MNI expects the launch of a new 3-year Jan-26 BTP, a reopening of the 7-year 2.80% Jun-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005495731) alongside a 15-50-year BTP. Details will be announced later today.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week will see no redemptions and just E0.3bln of coupon payments due. With estimated gross issuance of E29.2bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of positive E28.9bln this week, up from last week’s positive E3.6bln.

For more details see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.