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EGBS/GILTS: Curves See Light Bull Steepening

BONDS

Core/semi-core EGBs and Gilts sit slightly firmer to start the week, but remain comfortably within Friday's range with few macro catalysts thus far.

  • Bunds are +32 ticks at 133.62, toward the top end of today's 30 tick range. Technical studies remain bearish after the contract fell -160 ticks last week.
  • Weekend headline flow saw comments from dovish-leaning ECB members Panetta, Centeno and de Cos, where the former two expressed a preference for gradual easing of policy once rate cuts begin, rather than rapid adjustments. Elsewhere, Moody's affirmed Germany's sovereign rating at Aaa; Outlook Stable.
  • The German and French cash curves have lightly bull steepened, while 10-year periphery spreads to Bunds are tighter, aided by the uptick in European equities. The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is -2.6bps narrower at 155.8bps, still around 5bps wider than January's tightest levels.
  • Gilt futures are last +37 at 97.87, with the curve having lightly bull steepened. News-flow over the weekend was largely political/fiscal-centric, with Labour's decision to reduce the size of their green investment pledge still in focus.
  • Today's data docket is light, though there are scheduled remarks from ECB Chief Economist Lane at 0945GMT and 1315GMT and Executive Board member Cipollone at 1550GMT (though the latter is unlikely to be monetary policy-related). In the UK, Governor Bailey speaks at 1800GMT, for which text will be released.

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